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All Blacks: Six crucial selection decisions for Scott Robertson ahead of Ireland ‘grudge match’

Scott Robertson faces several key selection decisions ahead of the All Blacks’ World Cup quarter-final replay against Ireland at Aviva Stadium in Dublin.

New Zealand head into the clash against the Irish off the back of a narrow 24-22 victory over England, a clutch win that won’t have inspired too much confidence for their grudge match.

While the All Blacks were vastly improved particularly in the final quarter of the match, there is much the side needs to fix if they are to defeat Andy Farrell’s men again, as they did in France last year.

It certainly doesn’t help that the side have suffered injuries in crucial positions ahead of the showdown in Dublin while they must also navigate a six-day turnaround between Tests.

Ahead of the clash against Ireland, here are the six selections calls that Robertson that could make or break the All Blacks’ chances.

Ethan De Groot in or out?

In 2021, ex-All Blacks boss Ian Foster handed 22-year-old Ethan de Groot his first Test cap against Fiji and the powerful loosehead has not looked back since, quickly becoming a regular starter for the team when fit.

When available, De Groot has been an almost automatic selection for the All Blacks as the starting loosehead prop but last week he was omitted from the squad after failing to “meet internal standards.” Head coach Robertson did not disclose the reasoning for his non-selection any further but did confirm that he would be in the frame for selection against Ireland.

The All Blacks struggled to get dominance at scrum time against England with Tamaiti Williams as the starting loosehead prop but replacement Ofa Tu’ungafasi did as New Zealand managed to eke out penalties against the substitute English front-rowers.

Ireland pose a different threat at scrum time as they focus more on shape and technique rather than the power at the set-piece, which should lead to a change.

De Groot is probably best suited to tackle veteran tighthead prop Tadhg Furlong from the first whistle which will raise the question as to whether New Zealand should drop Pasilio Tosi, Tu’ungafasi or Williams.

Williams and Tu’ungafasi can play both sides of the scrum and would make a good pairing on the bench with the former being arguably the most consistent prop this year.

Scrum-half headache

After a stunning Rugby Championship campaign, Cortez Ratima had possibly his worst outing for the All Blacks against England in what has been a stellar start to his international career. The Chiefs man was wasteful and indecisive and had one of his passes easily picked off by Marcus Smith and England turned that intercept into seven points.

Robertson is not one to throw the 𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑦 out with the bath water and while making an alteration at number nine might look like a reactionary move, it would be more of a proactive one.

Cam Roigard has been in sensational form since returning from injury and looked in great nick as he ramped up the pace of the All Blacks attack in the latter stages of the Test match at Twickenham Stadium.

Ratima has two caps more than Roigard but the latter has spent more time in the All Blacks squad and is a bit more experienced in what it requires to be of international standard. His kicking game is also marginally better than that of Ratima’s which would pay dividends against the Irish.

Then one has to consider whether bringing back TJ Perenara would be profitable in Dublin as he has been there and done that over and over again with All Blacks teams in the past. There won’t be much splitting the two teams on Friday evening and experience could make all the difference.

While the previous two changes were selection dilemmas, the next two are enforced changes with Beauden Barrett and Codie Taylor both missing the clash against Ireland through concussion.

With the pairing being ruled out, Robertson not only loses 226 Test caps worth of experience in his starting XV but also two of his most in-form and influential figures in his squad. Taylor has been one of the best hookers in world rugby this year while Barrett has run the show at fly-half brilliantly over his past two Tests in the jersey.

Robertson has two straightforward decisions in the starting XV with Damian McKenzie and Asafo Aumua the clear frontrunners to earn promotions to the run-on team, but it is on the bench where the All Blacks boss will need to make the tough decisions.

George Bell is the only other hooker that has featured for the All Blacks this year while uncapped front-rower Brodie McAlister has been called up as cover after impressing against Munster for the All Blacks XV. McAlister is unlikely to usurp Bell in the pecking order unless Robertson deems the 27-year-old a better fit having played more professional rugby than Bell. For us, the decision should purely come down to which of the pair is better in the set-pieces and it would come as no surprise to see Aumua go as deep into the second half as possible against Ireland if not play the entire match.

As for McKenzie’s filler on the bench, Robertson has a handful of options. The first is deciding between Harry Plummer and Stephen Perofeta, the latter is likely to get the nod. But there is a third option, too. The All Blacks boss has selected a 5-3 split on the bench in every single Test match this year but a switch from the norm could be beneficial against the Irish.

Frankly put, unless McKenzie sustains an injury, he is not leaving the park until the final whistle so it could be worth the risk of stacking his bench with six forwards and two backs with Jordie Barrett utilised as an emergency fly-half if the Chiefs man goes down injured. The All Blacks’ breakdown has been a standout of their game in 2024 but that will really be put to the Test on Friday against Ireland and having an extra lock or back-rower will make all the difference.

Start Patrick Tuipulotu or Tupou Vaa’i

Finally, Scott Barrett is an automatic selection at lock but his partner is less straightforward with Tupou Vaa’i and Patrick Tuipulotu providing a healthy headache.

Vaa’i was the easy call during the Rugby Championship while Tuipulotu was injured but the latter has been in superb form since returning from injury and produced a blinder off the bench against England.

The All Blacks’ struggles in the final quarter are well documented this year and Robertson will need to decide whether Tuipulotu was a key cog in their improved last 20 against England or not. We believe that Vaa’i can make a similarly telling impact if he drops to the bench and on last weekend’s evidence, getting Tuipulotu on the pitch for longer is needed.

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