There’s a weak free-agent market, but plenty of big names could be moved via trade this winter
The 2023-24 MLB offseason has begun and although we’re still waiting for the winter’s first major transaction, that’s not unusual. Like the regular season itself, baseball’s offseason is a marathon, not a sprint. Things will pick up soon enough.
Here are our top 50 free agents. It is a thin free agent class behind Shohei Ohtani, and, because of that, teams may have no choice but to turn to the trade market to address their needs. It isn’t only rebuilding teams with players to trade. We could see contenders get together for MLB-player-for-MLB-player swaps this winter. Those are always fun.
With that in mind, here are MLB’s top 25 trade candidates heading into the 2023-24 offseason, ranked in order of how likely they are to be moved and how attractive they are to potential trade suitors.
1. Juan Soto, Padres
The Padres will reportedly trim payroll down to $200 million or so in 2024 and it will take some work, even with Josh Hader and Blake Snell becoming free agents. Trading Soto would clear his projected $30-plus-million salary next season. He’s a year away from free agency and the Scott Boras client is unlikely to sign an extension without testing the market. The Padres won’t get as much as they gave up for him last year, but they would get a very nice package of young players. Trading Soto is the most straightforward path to reducing payroll and adding young talent to the organization. A trade is a distinct possibility.
Possible landing spots: The prohibitive salary and one year of control means only contenders will come calling. The Blue Jays, Cubs, and Yankees are obvious fits. The Orioles should get involved as well, and I would not rule out the Phillies or Rangers making a run at Soto.
2. Paul Blackburn, Athletics
The A’s have just about torn their roster down to the studs, though some tradeable players remain, most notably Blackburn. The soon-to-be 30-year-old generally eats innings at a league average rate and an improved slider led to a career-best strikeout rate this past season. Blackburn has missed time with finger injuries the last two seasons and he’s probably not someone you want to start in Game 1 or 2 of a postseason series, but he’s steady and he comes with two affordable years of team control. With an uninspiring free-agent pitching market, Blackburn will appeal to clubs looking to solidify the back of their rotation, and the A’s won’t hesitate to unload the $3 million or so he’s projected to earn through arbitration.
Possible landing spots: Cardinals, Orioles, Red Sox. Pretty much any team, really. Every team needs pitching, especially pitching they can keep beyond 2024.
3. Tyler Glasnow, Rays
4. Manuel Margot, Rays
It’s cliché to single out the highest-paid Rays as trade candidates, but the Rays keep trading their highest-paid players. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Tampa has approximately $122 million on the books for next season, including arbitration projections. They had a $73.2 million Opening Day payroll this past season and the franchise record is an $83.9 million payroll in 2022. Either ownership is going to raise payroll significantly or well-compensated players like Glasnow (owed $25 million in 2024) and Margot ($10 million in 2024 with a $12 million club option for 2025) are heading out the door. Tampa’s history suggests the latter.
Possible landing spots: While every team would love Glasnow, one year of control means his market will be limited to teams expecting to contend in 2023. Figure the Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and Padres will be heavily involved. Margot can cover ground in the outfield and punish lefties. The Marlins, Twins, and Yankees stand out as potential suitors.
5. Ezequiel Duran, Rangers
Acquired in the Joey Gallo trade with the Yankees, Duran is capital-B Blocked with the Rangers. They have a full infield (Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien) and a full outfield (Evan Carter, Adolis García, Leody Taveras, with 2023 No. 4 pick Wyatt Langford coming in a hurry). Duran is a Statcast darling because he posts huge exit velocities and has a cannon arm, though there are questions about his approach at the plate. He was great in the first half (.870 OPS) and not so much in the second half (.610 OPS) once opposing clubs figured out he’ll chase out of the zone liberally. Still, Duran is only 24, has five years of control remaining, has power, and can play just about anywhere. For the Rangers, Duran is an obvious trade chip. They can use him to get pitching or whatever else they deem necessary.
Possible landing spots: Brewers, Red Sox, White Sox. Duran has the s𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁 set to put up big numbers in Fenway Park. Just about every team could use him and find a way to get him into their lineup. Every team except the Rangers, that is.
6. Corbin Burnes, Brewers
7. Willy Adames, Brewers
Milwaukee was dealt a significant blow when Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery that will sideline him most, if not all, of next season. Woodruff, like Adames and Burnes, will be a free agent after 2024. The Brewers could have kept everyone together and tried to make a run at another NL Central title next year. That will be difficult without Woodruff though, and they can’t kick the can down the road much further with Adames and Burnes. The best time to trade them is in the offseason, when more teams think they’re in it and haven’t used up their payroll space yet. The best free-agent middle infielder might be Elvis Andrus. Adames would instantly become the best available shortstop if the Brewers put him on the market.
Possible landing spots: Similar to Glasnow, the Burnes market will be limited to contenders given his one year of team control, so the Dodgers, Mets, and Padres immediately jump to mind. Adames makes a ton of sense for the Marlins, ditto the Dodgers.
8. Shane Bieber, Guardians
You needn’t look back too far to see the last time Cleveland traded its ace coming off an injury-plagued season. In December 2019, they sent Corey Kluber to Texas for a package that included Emmanuel Clase after injuries limited him to 35 2/3 innings in 2019. Kluber was a year away from free agency at the time, like Bieber is now. Shoulder trouble limited Bieber to 128 innings this season and in those 128 innings he set new career lows in strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, and average fastball velocity. Bieber had the lowest fastball whiff rate in baseball in 2023, incredibly. That said, it’s still Shane Bieber, and more than a few clubs would be willing to take him on as a reclamation project. The Guardians have a history of trading starters in similar situations.
Possible landing spots: Cardinals, Giants, Mets, Orioles. There is never a shortage of possible suitors for quality starters and even this compromised version of Bieber posted a 3.80 ERA in 2023. If the Guardians put him on the table, teams will come calling. I have no doubt about it.
9. Dylan Cease, White Sox
Cease’s follow-up to his 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up campaign did not go especially well, though he turns only 28 next month and he has two years of control remaining, plus he features the kind of power stuff teams crave. The White Sox have a new head of baseball operations (Chris Getz) and trading your ace is a difficult move to make in your first offseason at the helm. Then again, the White Sox need help all over the roster, and trading Cease is maybe the quickest way to get that help. Is he still on the roster the next time Chicago makes the postseason? If the answer to that is anything other than a firm yes, Getz must entertain trade offers.
Possible landing spots: The Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers were viewed as the top destinations for Cease at the trade deadline and there’s no reason to think those clubs won’t circle back this offseason. The Diamondbacks and Orioles should be in the mix too. Really, every team should. They all need pitching. Every last one of them.
10. Max Kepler, Twins
11. Jorge Polanco, Twins
The Twins picked up their affordable club options for Kepler ($10 million) and Polanco ($10.5 million with a $12 million option for 2025) earlier this week. Will they keep them though? Minnesota has a small army of lefty-hitting outfielders who are younger and cheaper than Kepler (Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Alex Kirilloff if they put him back in the outfield, touted prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez, etc.), and they could move on from Polanco if they believe Royce Lewis can stay healthy and Edouard Julien has legitimately improved his defense at second base. I think Kepler is more likely to go than Polanco, but I don’t think Polanco is off-limits. He shouldn’t be, anyway.
Possible landing spots: There are a few teams that could have interest in a Kepler/Polanco package deal. The Mariners could use both, for example. The Blue Jays could make it work. So could the Red Sox. Individually, the Mets and AL Central rival Guardians make sense for Kepler, and Seattle should be all over Polanco.
12. Orioles infielders
I’m going to cheat and list Baltimore’s infielders as one “player” here. The Orioles have a lot of them, more than they can realistically fit on one roster, so it makes sense to use some as trade chips to improve other parts of the team. Baltimore’s non-first base infielders can be split into three groups:
Henderson is likely to win AL Rookie of the Year and Holliday is the game’s best prospect. They are going nowhere. Mayo, Ortiz, Norby, and Westburg all have Triple-A experience (Westburg has 68 games of big league experience too) and need to face MLB pitching to be challenged and continue their development. Mateo and Urias are projected to make $2-plus-million through arbitration, so they’re the most expensive. They also fit best in utility roles. The kids need everyday at-bats. Point is, the O’s are rapidly approaching decision time. There are only so many roster spots to go around.
Possible landing spots: Given how young these players are, every team should be after them, especially rebuilding clubs like the Nationals, Pirates, and Tigers. Is there a Burnes for infielders trade to be made? Or Cease for infielders? That’s the kind of return the O’s should target here. An immediate difference-maker.
13. Alex Verdugo, Red Sox
Through no fault of his own, Verdugo will always be remembered as the guy the Red Sox got in the Mookie Betts trade. He’s a pretty good player himself, he’s just not Mookie. Anyway, Verdugo had a career-best season defensively in 2023 and he only has one more year of team control remaining. There have been no indications the Red Sox are interested in signing him long-term either, so the cycle repeats. The time has come for Boston to trade the guy they got when the time came to trade Betts.
Possible landing spots: Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi overlapped with Verdugo during their Dodgers days, so perhaps there’s interest there. Verdugo would fit Miami’s contact-heavy approach as well. Would the Yankees and Red Sox hook up for a trade? New York has needed a left fielder for three years now.
14. Dylan Carlson, Cardinals
15. Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals
It is sort of amazing Carlson and O’Neill are still Cardinals. They have been constantly mentioned as trade candidates for about two years now. O’Neill is entering his final season of team control, so there’s more urgency to move him. He’s also the more productive player and more likely to help St. Louis get back to the postseason next year than Carlson. Either way, Carlson and O’Neill have both gone backwards since what looked like breakout seasons in 2021. At minimum, both bring strong center field defense to the table, and other clubs will have interest in buying low on their bats.
Possible landing spots: The Yankees have had interest in Carlson in the past and I would imagine they’ll check back in this winter. The Nationals, Tigers, and White Sox all need outfield help as well. O’Neill would be a fine complement to Minnesota’s many lefty-hitting outfielders as well.
16. Jonathan India, Reds
Similar to the Orioles, the Reds have more infielders than roster spots. Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain are cornerstone types and top prospect Noelvi Marte got his feet wet late in the season. Edwin Arroyo, another highly regarded shortstop prospect, reached Double-A at the end of the season and isn’t too far away himself. Then there’s Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer. India is the oldest of these players (27 next month) and also the most expensive (projected $4 million or so in 2024) and closest to free agency (three years away). Seems like a pretty obvious trade candidate to me, especially with the free-agent market so devoid of quality infielders. Conditions are ripe to maximize the return.
Possible landing spots: The Mariners and Red Sox need a second baseman. If any teams believe India can handle third base, his college position at the University of Florida, the market would open up more. The Brewers, D-backs, Mets, and Yankees could all use a hot corner upgrade.
17. Vaughn Grissom, Braves
Atlanta has a full infield (Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Matt Olson, Austin Riley) and there have not yet been any indications there are plans to try Grissom in left field. On paper, he’s blocked, and the Braves have a history of trading blocked prospects or trading prospects for better players at the same positions. Think Shea Langeliers being stuck behind William Contreras, then Contreras being moved once Sean Murphy was acquired. Also, Cristian Pache and Drew Waters were dealt away once it became clear Michael Harris II is the center fielder of the future. The World Series window will never be more open than it is right now. The Braves should at least be open to offers for Grissom.
Possible landing spots: All the infield-needy teams I’ve listed previously: Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Yankees, so on and so forth. Atlanta will want MLB players in return, not prospects, which could be an obstacle during trade talks with some teams.
18. Gleyber Torres, Yankees19. Kyle Higashioka, Yankees
The Yankees have not been shy about saying they see Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza as their middle infield of the future, so, with Torres a year away from free agency, the best time to trade him is now. The standings will limit the market at the deadline. Higashioka, the longest-tenured player in the organization (drafted in 2008), is a dingers-and-defense backup with one affordable season of team control remaining. The free agent market is thin behind the plate and the Yankees appear ready to turn catching duties over to prospect Austin Wells, with 2022 All-Star Jose Trevino backing him up.
Possible landing spots: For Torres, it’s the Mariners and Marlins. Miami and the Yankees have discussed him at each of the last two trade deadlines. Higashioka could fit with the Brewers, Padres, and White Sox, among others.
20. Hunter Harvey, Nationals
21. Kyle Finnegan, Nationals
I didn’t want to load this list up with relievers but yeah, a lot of relievers will get traded this offseason. It is the way of the world. In Harvey and Finnegan, Washington has two bat-missers with premium velocity and multiple years of team control remaining. The Nationals did make some progress this year, but, realistically, Harvey and Finnegan are unlikely to be key contributors to their next contending team. Finnegan is already 32 and Harvey has an extensive injury history. This offseason is the best time to cash them in as trade chips. The last thing a rebuilding team should do is keep relievers too long. They’re so unpredictable.
Possible landing spots: The Angels, Cubs, Mets, Rangers, and Red Sox all make sense. Basically any team planning to contend next season should give the Nationals call. Harvey and/or Finnegan would make just about any bullpen better.
22. Logan Gilbert, Mariners
Do I believe the Mariners will trade Gilbert, who has emerged as an above-average workhorse and is under team control through 2027? No, I do not. This is an “I’ll need to see it to believe it” situation. That said, there were rumblings about Gilbert at the trade deadline, and Seattle does have an enviable amount of young pitching. Trading from that surplus to address other needs has to be on the table, whether it’s Gilbert or someone else. I think the chances Gilbert gets traded this winter are small, but they’re definitely not 0%.
Possible landing spots: Every team could use a guy like Gilbert and that is especially true for the Orioles. I mean, if Baltimore won’t part with prospects (I refer you back to No. 12 on this list) to get a highly effective starter with long-term control like Gilbert, then I have no idea who they are willing to trade prospects to get. The Dodgers and Red Sox should be in heavy on Gilbert too.
23. Eloy Jiménez, White Sox
After going 61-101 this season and parting ways with longtime executives Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams, everything has to be on the table this offseason for the White Sox, and that including trading Jiménez. The soon-to-be 27-year-old has shown enormous power when healthy — he’s averaged 33 homers per 162 games in his career — he just isn’t healthy very often, and he’s essentially a DH. His defense is so bad he’s at risk of hurting himself (it’s happened before). Jiménez is entering the final guaranteed season of his contract, though there are affordable club options for 2025 and 2026. The ChiSox would be doing themselves a huge disservice if they didn’t listen.
Possible landing spots: Paying big for a DH is not really their thing but the Rays are a good fit. The Blue Jays and Mets could use a big bat at DH as well, and can afford a pricey DH.
24. Pete Alonso, Mets
At least one team made a “significant push” for Alonso at the trade deadline and I’m certain more teams will come calling this winter. I think the most likely outcome is Alonso, who is a year away from free agency, will sign a long-term extension to stay with the Mets. He loves the organization and owner Steve Cohen can certainly afford any contract. That all said, the fact of the matter is Alonso will be mentioned in trade talks until that extension is signed. I suspect we’ll hear a lot of noise about Alonso this offseason, perhaps so much that he seems more available than he really is.
Possible landing spots: The Brewers tried for Alonso at the deadline and the Cubs have a glaring need for a middle of the order first base bat, so they’re at the top of the list of suitors. I don’t think we can ever rule out the Padres on a star player, particularly when the Mets have shown a willingness to eat money to maximize the return.
25. Mike Trout, Angels
A few weeks ago it was reported that, for the first time ever, the Angels are open to trading Trout, assuming he wants to be traded. Ohtani is expected to leave as a free agent and the club is looking at what might be a prolonged down period. Trout turned 32 in August and has only so many years remaining as a player who can be a central piece of a championship club. A trade will not be easy though. Trout has missed a lot of time with injuries, he has nearly $250 million remaining on his contract, and he has a full no-trade clause. Only a few teams can afford him and even then Trout can direct where he goes. Trout has said he is planning to report to spring training as an Angel, but how he feels today may not be how he feels in two months. He’s allowed to change his mind.
