Super Rugby Pacific CEO Jack Mesley might want the battle lines between New Zealand and Australia to end when it comes to supporting the domestic competition, but former All Blacks skipper Justin Marshall says the Southern Hemisphere tournament’s long-term health is reliant on old sparring rivals stepping up to the plate.

It’s been more than a decade since an Australian franchise won Super Rugby, with the Waratahs’ triumph in 2014 the last time an Aussie side reached the final.

Since then it’s been a slippery slide for Australia’s franchises, with no team beating New Zealand opposition in 2017.

The failures across the board influenced the decision for the then Australian Rugby Union to cull the Western Force, before they returned in mid-2020 following the onset of Covid-19.

Justin Marshall says Australia’s Super Rugby franchises must make a statement for the competition to return to its former glories. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

But the struggles on the field, including at the international level, led to a slide in gate-takings, sponsorships and broadcast dollars, influenced the decision to let the Rebels slide off into oblivion in 2024 after the Melbourne-franchise racked up more than $20 million in debt.

The sorry demise of the Rebels continued Super Rugby’s reputational fall, which has been hurt by one-sided results and the constant chopping and changing of the tournament, which included the failed expansion into Japan and Argentina.

Asked how the latest 11-team iteration of the competition was going to grow, Marshall, one of rugby’s best analysts and a respected voice in World Rugby, said the tournament could only survive if Australia’s teams started to deliver on the field to bring back interest on both sides of the ditch.

“One word: Australia. If Australia can continue to grow from what we saw in the end-of-year tour then we’re going to be healthier for it,” he told DSPN with Martin Devlin.

“Let’s face it, and I’m not saying this arrogantly, it’s factual and the Australians know this. Basically, we tune into the derby games because that’s where the excitement levels are, that’s where the true contest is.

“In general, throughout the course of the year, it’s very rare that an Australian team would beat a New Zealand team, so we switch off. And that’s our players switching off to a degree as well.

“Yes, they’re still out there and they’ve got some healthy competition, but ultimately 85, 90 per cent of the time they’re winning those games against the Australian sides. It’s not healthy because it’s not creating the edge that they need.

“Now that Australia have dropped the Rebels – hopefully reinforcing some of those other sides with squad depth and competition for places – they’re going to grow and be much more resilient.

“If they’re much more resilient, all of a sudden there’s no switching off. We’re going to actually want to tune in to the Crusaders or the Hurricanes or the Blues versus the Waratahs.”

Justin Marshall says the Waratahs on paper should remerge as a threat in 2025. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

Marshall’s comments are at odds with Mesley’s hope that the battlelines between nations can be dropped.

“Let’s get back to talking about that and not talking about how many games Australian teams won,” said Mesley, the former A-League chief-commercial officer, during a round-table discussion inside Rugby Australia’s headquarters in Moore Park.

“That’s a pretty boring thing to follow as a game.”

He added: “Back then (in 1996), the competition was marketed as a competition, not a development pathway, and it was hugely exciting back in the day.

“Let’s celebrate this for being a competition of 11 teams that drives a whole lot of excitement because of who those teams are, where they’re from, who have they got playing, the styles, all of that.”

But Marshall said interest will only return when there’s a proper contest on the field.

“By the look of the Waratahs squad, with what they’ve been bulked with by Rebels players, on paper they look really, really strong,” he said.

“That’s how the competition will grow, that’s how we will generate more excitement because all of a sudden every game is important.

“When Fijian Drua are playing in Fiji, you go, ‘man, you want to watch that’, because they can cause an upset, but when they travel, you kind of switch off.

“If all those dynamics come into play, every game we’re going to want to tune in to.”

While last year’s 12-team competition allowed for an eight-team finals competition, the fall of the Rebels saw Super Rugby Pacific officials return to a six-team knockout stage in 2025.

It means more jeopardy is on the line for a competition dominated by New Zealand’s franchises, with four of the five sides across the ditch winning the title since 2015.

Although Marshall predicted New Zealand’s sides would improve, including Moana Pasifika, who have recruited Ardie Savea, the former halfback didn’t want to predict which six sides would make the finals series because of the increased depth in Australia as a result of the Rebels’ demise.

“The big component of it is the make-up of these Australian sides,” Marshall said.

“The Brumbies, they’re a good side, they just let themselves down last year but their squad looks better this year.

“I mentioned the Waratahs, if you don’t believe, go online and check out their squad they’ve got people like Taniela Tupou. So if they win at home, they’ve only got to jag a couple overseas.

“It’s exciting.”